‘The Situation is Dire’: Hostilities on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Supplies.

The repercussions of a military engagement being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now being felt in India's homes.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran impede energy deliveries through the key maritime chokepoint, supplies of cooking gas are tightening across India, forcing restaurants to reduce offerings, close earlier and in some cases cease operations entirely.

Social media is flooded by video clips showing crowds outside fuel suppliers across Indian cities and towns as concerns over fuel supplies escalate. Businesses appear the worst hit: the sharpest squeeze is in restaurant kitchens.

"Conditions are critical. Cooking gas simply is unavailable," says a official of the a major restaurant body.

Most food outlets run either on business-grade gas tanks or direct gas lines, and the shortages are now being experienced across the country. "Numerous restaurants have ceased operations - some in Delhi, many in the southern states. People are switching to traditional burners and electric cookers to keep food preparation going."

Regional Impact

In Mumbai, accounts say up to a significant portion of hotels and restaurants are already completely or partially closed as cylinder availability dry up. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some establishments say their fuel reserves have depleted with little backup. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and nothing else - it is nothing less than pathetic. Commerce will take a hit," says a business operator in Bengaluru.

Restaurant owners are rushing to adjust. "Food options are being cut, some are opening only for dinner and reducing hours," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are fluctuating as supplies wax and wane. "Three restaurants in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a dynamic scenario."

Retailers report a surge in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are facing stockouts.

Government Stance

Yet, the authorities maintains there is adequate supply.

India has more than 300 million household consumers and spokespersons say supplies are being reallocated to households as tensions from the Middle East conflict affect energy markets.

About six out of ten of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about nine out of ten of those shipments pass through the key maritime route, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now significantly disrupted by the hostilities.

The petroleum ministry says that it ordered refineries to increase LPG output for home needs, enhancing domestic production by about a quarter. Non-domestic supply is being prioritised for vital industries such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".

"A degree of anxious stocking and hoarding has been sparked by rumors. The standard supply timeline for household cylinders remains about under three days," says a government spokesperson.

Spreading Anxiety

Now the worry is moving beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a extended procession of scooters outside a fuel station. "Concern is genuine," the caption reads.

According to data from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader energy security may be premature.

India imports the overwhelming majority of its petroleum. Around a significant portion of its oil purchases - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from Middle Eastern nations.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the shortfall could be partly made up by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a industry commentator.

Based on shipping data and credible market sources, increased Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, lessening India's effective shortfall from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.

Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness

The real vulnerability is cooking gas, analysts say.

India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - most of it through the chokepoint.

Refineries can adjust processes to extract a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only lift domestic supply to about under half of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be somewhat alleviated through varied suppliers. Refined product supply remains relatively comfortable. LPG availability is the real variable to watch in the coming weeks."

What may be intensifying the concern on the ground is not just limited availability but uneven distribution - and the familiar spectre of panic buying.

An industry representative claims price gouging.

"Suppliers are misusing the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and sold to the highest bidder."

For now, India's oil supplies may be buffered by worldwide shipping. But in restaurants across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next refill.