Moving from Grudging Respect to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A surprise raid on the capital in the dead of night, culminating in the seizure of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power declares its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Russia's president envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of international law and a worrying development. But behind the rhetoric, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a coup that Moscow itself once planned, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed competently,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was meant to proceed: fast, dramatic and conclusive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be fighting for four years.”

Such commentary have fed a atmosphere of introspection among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how audacious the American action seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – hoping to helping to shape a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for the Caracas government as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other important partners lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into little choice but to express outrage. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

Analysts point to a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with the US administration on that issue far outweighs the fate of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”