A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
